As the final month of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season begins, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are keeping their eye on the Caribbean Sea, along with two other areas, for possible development.
Here's what the NHC had to say Friday afternoon.
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
North Atlantic:
A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores has been producing increased convection near its center over the past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days. Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.