As expected, Tropical Storm Rafael formed over the Caribbean Sea Monday afternoon.
With warm waters and low wind shear, Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, possibly as early as tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center's official forecast brings Rafael up to category 2 strength as it moves over western Cuba mid-week.
However, once Rafael moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to weaken as the storm encounters cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Models also disagree on the storm's eventual path in the Gulf, and the NHC notes its confidence in the track for that timeframe is low.
Forecasters also say it is too early to say what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to the northern Gulf Coast. Residents are advised to stay updated.